The Commitment as A Measure Against Social Crises in Unanticipated Situation
Toshinori Nakamura
(May 30, 2020) On March 6, 2020 I suggested to some of the people who related to political matters, “We should prepare the special staffs and special facilities for new virus as soon as we can, in order to visually show the government’s intention, which it is seriously making the effort to protect citizens from this virus crisis. Then, it will, working as a commitment (as among gametheological terminology), restrain the social and economic crises caused by the virus prevalence.” After a while, on March 13, I have also submitted a paper including not only the suggestion, but its logical grounds. Whether my suggestion has effected the government’s decision or not, on March 19, the web-site of Nikkei Shinbun has said, “On march 19, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare said that they are going to want to local governments to consider the special hospitals for Coronavirus.”1 1. The Circumstance of Japanese Society at That Time On March 3, as the Japanese officials was treating the patients from the luxury liner, Diamond Princess, we was fearfully watching the news of the case on the various media (such as internet-sites, TV, newspapers, journals and so on). Meanwhile, we got a good news that a medicine called “Alvesco” have wrought well on COVID-19 patients2, so we were glad at the news, however, we also got a bad news from “Twitter”, that said, “Due to the news about the success of ‘Alvesco’, it is running out of stock!”.3 That was a private Tweet, nevertheless, its responses were great numbers, and having a large impact on our society. I think ... “The medicine run out now even though the medicine require its prescription to be bought: the fact seemed to show that the distribution controlled by only professional agents, would be confused by the impact of the news. How much had this situation made the people (and even the professional agents) nervous ! ” That Tweet turned out to be partially ture, but the shortage has been solved by the maker’s supply control.4 Anyway, it is sure that, at that time, many of Japanese people were being covered by the ansty. Some of the examples are given below. (These examples have been translated by the author.) “(The astry from) new Coronavirus became even the cause of a case that a person did bloody battle with another in order to buy masks.” (FNN PRIME, February 25 )5 “In January, there were the stock of masks that amount of 1.8 billion, however, during the beginning of February, they almost all run out, even though mask suppliers have being made 3 times of the normal.” (JIJI.COM, February 28 )6 († The Population of Japan is about 0.1 billion.) “A rumor produced by the new Cronavirus crisis has let to the shortage of toilet rolls.” (DIAMOND ONLINE, March 4 )7 2. The Activities Carried Out by The Japanese National Medical Care Staffs There are both arguments that agree and disagree with the Japanese medical activities. However, I have thought I should agree it because it is recognized as rational at least by me. Nevertheless, the activities and its ground are very complex and difficult to learn, and of course it is not visible (or sensible). As I read a E-mail from my friend who was an engineering researcher of a natinonal agency, I had an interest in a topic, “invisible things would often make us anxious”, and the mail said, “I have confidence in the matters having a mechanical ground, but not in other things, especially in something invisible” and “Because Coronavirus is invisible, so we would probably feel it is awful.”8 From the above point of view, the idea has come to mind that Japanese medical activities seemed partially invisible in logical and in physical, and, furthermore, government’s intention seemed more invisible. And its invisibility (or difficulty) seemed to lead to the anxieties of Japanese non-governmental citizens. I give those examples that seemed to be connect with the above “anxieties”: “Government must underestimate the influence of the new Coronavirus.” ( TOYOKEIZAI ONLINE, March 6 )9 “Staffs’ wariness wouldn’t be enogh.” ( WEDGE Infinity, March 4 )10 “It seems that, due to the lack of leadership, our bureaucracy has done hasty activities and immobilism.” ( 47 news, March 12 )11 († These examples have been translated by the author.) 3. Could A Gametheological Commitment Be Applied? A matrix that perhaps we have seen in some classrooms about Game Theory would be supposed to be below: We assume that the government’s options are “A: Fulfilling their responsibility” and “B: Evading their responsibility.” And citizens’ options are “C: Believing and cooperating (with their government)” and “D: Unbelieving and acting for oneself” (not contribute anyone.) † Here, I won’t show up the government’s profit or damage on the matrixes, but only show up the citizens’ profits or damages.
Government, of course, should take the option “A: Fulfilling their responsibility.” And when they are in an anticipated situation, most of citizens could be believing that their government fulfill their responsibilities at least in a modern democratic society. Therefore, the citizens would usually choose “C: Believing and cooperating”, and the result must be “Damage: Small.” This is very typical example such as one dealt with in some classrooms. But, in an unanticipated situation, practically, citizens perhaps wouldn’t be able to believe the government’s choice with confidence. Even the citizens are rational, its choices might be “D: Unbelieving and acting for oneself” due to the possibility that government would be likely to choose “B: Evading their responsibility”, or that government wouldn’t be likely to recognize the situation enough. In fact, on the matrix, if the government’s choice were B (or the government didn’t recognize the situation enough) , citizens’s options C is danger than D. And as an aside. There is an empirical idea that “If the recognizing some situation were not clear, we should take an answer based on the possibility which the situation would be most bad.” (At least, this phrase is often heard in Japan.) But what we go according to the idea is, in other words, “we should assume the government’s choice is B and we should choose D, and, say, if this idea is best, then the citizens’ choices D would be quite rational for that individual persons.” Is this good idea? However, these situations could be changed by appling the game theoretical commitments (which are going to able to avoid the other player’s choices, by eliminating one’s own options) by the government. For example, if the government eliminates the option B with a commitment.
Here, citizen’s choice “C: Believing and cooperating” have become very rational and safe. If I say specifically a game theoretical commitment, I can give an example, say, a situation which some people have suspected that particular goverment’s staffs would evade their responsibility later, arguing “we had too much works, and we were not able to take the time for the purpose.”, and the staffs may do their duty contrary to the people’s suspicion. (they did’t know whether the staffs will do or will evade their duty.) In that situation, person or people who are managing the government can eliminate the suspicion with eliminating the staffs’ other duties. If the staffs lose the other duties, they cannot say, “we had too much works ...”, and the people would expect they don’t say it. Or the manager as well as above can show the people some of runnig efforts. If the people understand the efforts and think that “they already started their expected job and show us the fact, so they may not be able to say, they cannot.”, the people cannot become to suspect their unduty. There are a many kind of methods. However, of course, you know, these methods ought to be understood by the another side. 4. Players’ Costs for Analyzing Their Choices As I said in the topic “The Activities Carried Out by The Japanese National Medical Care Staffs”, The activities Japanese medical care staffs did are very complex, and, unfortunately, difficult to lean for non-specialists. So I felt, in my sense, that the Japanese medical staffs would have been going rational activities, but, to understand its rationality, it took me perhaps 10 or more hours even though I prefered to learn such as the things. And I have also felt it seemed a painful work for many people who had no interest in a matter like this. Honestly, I cannot imagine the scene where the quite a little people would try to enthusiastically analyze the matters and could be going to be familiar with the matters well, and then will be able to choose quite rationally. Even I may not be able to assume the scene, probably. If an actual action was prepared as a commitment as well as above to eliminate the government’s option B, might the people try to recognize the commitment with such as the efforts? If so, what do we try to recognize a matter by? “By analyzing”? I think it is sometimes ture, but not all, say, that is by a experience or by a sense. In discussions on game theoretical analysis, we wouldn’t consider the players’ costs for analyzing their choices, and many of discussions on economics would be so. However a notion “players’ costs for analyzing their choices” must not be doubt. There are the costs as I said above “it took me perhaps 10 or more hours.” And the costs would have a larger affect where the players have been assumed as individual citizens than as a sort of a government, a bureau, or a firm. Therefore I’m going to try to suppose that: If we try to recognize a matter by analyzing, it will take us 10 or more hours and will be enough to tire us. And in an unanticipated situation, we can assume the three points. ・An experience may be more useless in an unanticipated situation than in an anticipated to choose an option. ・A sense may not have large differences between in unanticipated and in anticipated situations. ・An analyzing may be useless in an unanticipated situation than in anticipated situation because of the lack of good informations and preceding studies. From the above assumptions, we can say that: In an unanticipated situation, if some of the people who usually recognize some of matters by their experience, are needed to choose another way, by analyzing or by sense, then they will be most likely recognize the matters by their sense. (Because it needs no cost and no effort, but it have been naturally given almost all peoples. And it is hard to expect that the people who didn’t try to analyze for their recognizing in an anticipated situation, would try to in an unanticipated situation, paying a cost or an effort even though we can obtain less accurate outcomes by analyzing than in an anticipated situation.) And the people who usually recognize some matters by their sense, would not be likely to change their way, because, if they want to obtain something with analyzing, they will need a cost or an effort, and if they can so, they have already done when the situation is anticipated because, we can take more accurate outcomes with more low cost or a little effort by analyzing in anticipated than unanticipated. And the people who usually recognize some matters by analyzing, wouldn’t be try to recognize it by their experience because, if so, they have already done. Therefore they would be, as usual, try to analyze it (I think they would try one or more time.), but, if they couldn’t get something answer, they will have no way without something by their senses. And, something would be given from experiences is probably a less in unanticipated. I give a figure following, and we assume that,on the figure, each groups have 2 members, and 50 percent of members are going to change their choices.
In other words, we can also say the assumption as following. ( the reduction in utility by analyzing ) ＞ ( the reduction in utility by sense ) ( the reduction in utility by experience ) ＞ ( the reduction in utility by analyzing ) ( the cost for analyzing ) ＞ (the cost for experience) (the cost for analyzing ) ＞ (the cost for sense ) And, in unanticipated situation, if it can be given, the utility given by analyzing would be perhaps more than others, but then it could be not known by the peoples that “How much utility we could obtain from the way of analyzing”, and it is not always given. If (the reduction in utility by analyzing or by experience ) ＞ (the reduction in utility by sense), then, some people will choose the way “by sense.” Hence, in the result of this model, people who effected by sense will be increased 33% to 66% and, they will occupy the largest part. Therefore, in an unanticipated situation, the commitment adjusted to senses is more effective than adjusted to the others. In other words, the commitment adjusted to senses is relatively more effective in unanticipated situations than in anticipated situations. 5. A Real Crisis Application I think there will be a criticism, “Do you say, ‘we should visualize the measures, wasting the resources for medical efforts?’ ”. However, if economic crisis woud be raising, we will be able to send the resources to our medical section enough. Hence, we should think “The way to deter the economic crises, so that, we can maximize the resources sent to medical section.” An actual situation was likely not to waste the resources. For example, if an hospital ship is sent to the area being hit by disease crisis, even thorough the ship have very few ability of the treatment, but it was becoming a very strong visible commitment, and partially, deter the economic crisis, and then citizens can be giving the materials for their medical section. Here, I qoute a video, “VOA News” uploaded on March 31, 2020.  (This image is screenshot of the site12) In the video, the New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio say, “Feeling the presence of the United States military here just gave me a sense that things were going to be okey. And just it’s such a moving sight. The ship is so impressive. It just looming there in our harbor you know was like a beacon of hope.”12 And ,as I mentioned the beginning, I have suggested, “we should prepare the special staffs and special facilitiesas”, and whether my suggestion have effected the government’s decision or not, “On march 19th, Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare said that they are going to want to local governments to consider the special hospitals.” However, until April 14th, the action responded to the way couldn’t seen at least by me. But on April 14th, the city of Osaka have discovered the plan to turn the hospital, Juso City Hospital, into a special Hospital for CORONA virus.13  (This image is screenshot of the Hospital’s site14) The result couldn’t be examined yet. Nevertheless, the support rate for the Osaka city mayor’s party “Nihon Ishin no Kai” have risen from 5 percent at April 8 to 11 percent at May 6th.15 The rising, of course, was effected by their policies including the other, say, proposing their exit strategy, their criticism for the national government and so on, but their statements have mostly taken a logic in common with the policy of the special hospital. (Though, I feel that their policies are effectd by the conscious of making commitments rather than making the commitments to be adjusted for senses.) 6. Suggestions The idea that the commitments adjusted for senses are more important in unanticipated situations than anticipated situations, can be applied to many fields. It is not only as a measure against a social crisis by setting special hospitals for virus, but as the way to make the customers buck at restaurants, shops and resorts with setting something visible or understandable measures, say, good social distances, visible disinfectors, and so on. And if it is not directly effective, it will work, say, showing the sign boads showing the efforts for hygine give the customers feel safety. Those ways would already be given on many fields, but the thing I want to emphasize is that it is more effective in an unanticipated situation, and though I think that the politicians of some of states are perhaps empirically familiar with the ways adjusted for senses, there would be the people not familiar with the situation. Therefore, it would satisfy me that the article is helpfull on another states which does not get such the crisis. 7. Notes and Sources
1. Nikkei, Inc.’s web-site ( https://www.nikkei.com/article/DGXMZO57042550Z10C20A3CC1000/ ) Retrieved March 20, 2020
2. RUETERS web-site ( https://reut.rs/2VFDWPS ) Retrieved March 22, 2020
3. Twitter ( https://twitter.com/12Noru/status/1235199506611720193 ) Retrieved March 22, 2020
4. J-Cast ( https://www.j-cast.com/2020/03/06381587.html ) Retrieved March 25, 2020
5. FNN PRIME ( https://www.fnn.jp/posts/00432753CX/202002251812_CX_CX ) Retrieved March 25, 2020
6. JIJI.COM ( https://www.jiji.com/jc/article?k=2020022701262 ) Retrieved March 25, 2020
7. DIAMOND ONLINE ( https://diamond.jp/articles/amp/230623 ) Retrieved March 25, 2020
8. That mail was received by me on March 4, 2020.
9. TOYOKEIZAI ONLINE ( https://toyokeizai.net/articles/-/334663 ) Retrieved March 28, 2020
10. WEDGE Infinity ( https://wedge.ismedia.jp/articles/-/18862 ) Retrieved March 28, 2020
11. 47 news ( https://this.kiji.is/610052713176466529 ) Retrieved March 28, 2020
12. VOA News ( https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wE4RtjlX-G4 ) Retrieved April 18, 2020
13. The Sankei News ( https://www.sankei.com/smp/life/news/200414/lif2004140088-s1.html ) Retrieved May 14, 2020
14. Osaka City Hospital Organization ( https://www.osakacity-hp.or.jp/juso/about/outline.html ) Retrieved May 17, 2020
15. The Minichi ( https://mainichi.jp/senkyo/articles/20200506/k00/00m/010/133000c ) Retrieved May 11, 2020
Proposer: T. Nakamura (Schelling’s Twitter follower) | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||